Greece’s demographic challenge: why a return to prior-decade birth levels is increasingly unlikely
A new study by the Institute of Demographic Research and Studies (IDEM) argues that a rebound in births to the levels seen in the previous decade is practically unlikely—not only because of economic and social pressures, but because the number of women of reproductive age is steadily shrinking. This matters because demographics shape everything from the labor force and schools to healthcare demand and long-term public finances. In this article, we explain the study’s core point and what it means in practical terms.
At the center of the argument is a reality that often gets lost in public debate: total births depend not just on “how many children families want,” but also on how large the population base is among the ages where births typically occur. When that base declines, it becomes harder for total births to recover—even if policies improve conditions.
For the study’s broader framing, see IDEM’s publication on the topic: IDEM’s report on demographics and low birth rates in Greece.
The key constraint: fewer women of reproductive age
In plain terms, the total number of births is shaped by two forces:
What determines total births
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How many women are in childbearing ages (the “population base”)
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How many children, on average, each woman has (fertility levels)
If the first factor declines over time, improvements in the second factor may still not be enough to bring total births back to earlier levels. That’s why IDEM emphasizes structural “demographic inertia”—the impact of past trends that shape today’s age structure.
Why the base is shrinking
A shrinking population of women of reproductive age is typically linked to long-running trends such as:
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smaller birth cohorts in previous decades (which results in fewer women in those ages today),
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outward migration of younger adults,
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delayed childbearing into later ages, which reduces the available time window for having children.
Demography, however, doesn’t evolve in isolation. Cost pressures and housing conditions can influence family planning decisions, timing, and even whether people feel able to have children. For related context, you can follow Newsio’s ongoing coverage in EN Economy.
What this means for Greece in practical terms
IDEM’s conclusion doesn’t mean nothing can improve. It means policymakers and the public should be realistic about what is achievable, and over what time horizon. If the population base continues shrinking, a rapid return to earlier birth totals becomes far less plausible.
What this means (in everyday terms)
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Schools and local communities may keep seeing smaller student cohorts, especially in areas already losing population.
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The labor market may face tighter staffing constraints in key sectors, with stronger pressure in regions that age faster.
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Healthcare and social systems may carry more weight as the share of older age groups rises.
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Long-term planning becomes essential, because demographic change moves slowly but reshapes demand everywhere.
What to watch next
The public debate often centers on “how to raise births.” IDEM’s study adds a critical constraint: without a sufficiently large population of women of reproductive age, even well-designed measures may not lift total births back to prior-decade levels. That pushes the discussion toward long-term, multi-layered policy—family support, childcare access, housing affordability, and retaining or attracting younger adults—rather than short-term fixes.
For more reporting where demographics intersects with society and public policy, you can explore EN Society.
